BiH’s NATO Membership Remains Extremely Unlikely

NATO ministers meeting in Brussels Tuesday agreed to begin implementing BiH’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) and called on BiH to submit its first annual national program on its preparations for possible membership. NATO abandoned its earlier condition that before BiH’s MAP could be activated, all state property being used by the military must be transferred from the Entities to the BiH Ministry of Defense.

NATO’s 2010 decision to condition activation of the MAP on this property transfer was made at the behest of Bosniak politicians in BiH seeking leverage in the longstanding dispute over the ownership of state property. Republika Srpska has long argued that NATO’s condition was unnecessary and an inappropriate interference in BiH’s domestic affairs. Republika Srpska already allows the BiH Ministry of Defense use of all of the military property it needs. Nonetheless, Bosniaks took advantage of NATO’s willingness to comply and applied political pressure on the BiH courts to unlawfully transfer property from the Entities to the BiH, much to the RS’s disadvantage. NATO’s abandonment of the state-property condition should, perhaps, reduce political pressure on BiH courts to unlawfully transfer property from the Entities to the BiH level.

NATO describes the MAP as “a NATO programme of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance.” But despite NATO’s decision to activate BiH’s MAP, BiH’s accession to NATO in the foreseeable future is extremely unlikely. Key NATO members, in recent years, have shown no desire to further expand the alliance after Macedonia’s expected accession. Moreover, support in BiH for NATO membership is far from assured. RS citizens overwhelmingly oppose BiH’s NATO membership. Many Serbs in BiH do not wish to see the border of a military alliance dividing them from Serbia.

On 18 October 2017, the RS National Assembly approved a resolution proclaiming military neutrality “in relation to the existing military alliances until a possible referendum to make a final decision on the issue is held.” The RS was well justified in proclaiming its position—and would be well justified in holding a referendum—on the issue of BiH’s potential membership in NATO. The RS position is clearly consistent with the rights the RS enjoys under the Constitution and the Dayton Accords.

Given the serious nature and political and legal consequence of becoming a member of NATO, referenda on NATO membership have been held in many countries considering joining the alliance. BiH’s accession to NATO would require BiH to ratify a protocol to the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. A referendum would play an important democratic role of informing members of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly representing Republika Srpska and the member of the BiH Presidency from Republika Srpska about the views of RS citizens on whether the North Atlantic Treaty should be ratified and whether it is destructive of a vital RS interest.

Moreover, the BiH Constitution explicitly gives the RS National Assembly a key role in the ratification of treaties. Under the BiH Constitution, the BiH Presidency negotiates treaties and ratifies them with the consent of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly. However, the BiH Constitution provides: “A dissenting Member of the Presidency may declare a Presidency Decision to be destructive of a vital interest of the Entity from the territory from which he was elected . . . Such a Decision shall be referred immediately to the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, if the declaration was made by the Member from that territory.”

This provision gives the RS National Assembly a clear constitutional function in the ratification of treaties. If the BiH Presidency were to attempt to ratify the North Atlantic Treaty—or any other treaty—the question of ratification could well come directly before the RS National Assembly. It is appropriate for the RS National Assembly to pass resolutions laying out its convictions on important issues like NATO membership and to solicit its citizens’ views through referenda.

Republika Srpska’s constitutional role in any potential accession to a military alliance must be taken into account by all parties interested in this issue.